Sabalenka: The Silence After Victory at the US Open

When the umpire blew the final whistle on Louis Armstrong Stadium, Aryna Sabalenka did not raise her arms in celebration. She walked back to her chair, reached for a white towel, and looked toward her coaching box. That silence lasted three seconds, long enough for me to realize that a 6-1, 6-1 victory over a qualifier was not what she was thinking about. The crowd applauded, but her eyes were not on them. She stared at the scoreboard, where the name of her next opponent was displayed. That was the moment I noted in my notebook: a champion trying to read her own rhythm, not the rhythm of the match just ended. Sabalenka arrived at Flushing Meadows with a burden no one sees on the court. Three consecutive fourth-round losses before this – at Roland-Garros, Wimbledon, and another tournament – had created a crack in her dominance narrative. But here, she is the top seed, defending 2,000 points from two consecutive US Open titles. Her No. 1 ranking is precarious: even if she wins the title, she still needs results from other players to hold onto it. Her opponent in this match was Polina Iatcenko, a qualifier outside the top 100. The match ended in 53 minutes, 6-1, 6-1. She won 21 of 28 first-serve points, 75%, above the WTA average on hard courts. But it was an easy win, and that ease made me suspicious. People remember the score, I remember the silence after the whistle. In this match, that silence lay in how Sabalenka adjusted her racket between points, how she glanced at her coaching box, how she took a deep breath before stepping to the baseline. There was no rush, no excessive excitement. She was conserving energy, not just for this match, but for the whole tournament. That is a sign of a player who has learned to manage her own tempo, after recent failures. But I cannot forget that her opponent was a qualifier. Sabalenka's 16-0 record against qualifiers is impressive, but it says nothing about her ability against top-tier opponents. The stratification in the WTA is clear: top seeds almost never lose to qualifiers. That is not a compliment, but a systemic reality. Sabalenka faced no real pressure in this match, which means she has not been tested. Look at her serve. 21 of 28 first-serve points is a good rate, but it was done against a player with weak return skills. I have followed Sabalenka for years, and I know that against elite returners like Iga Swiatek or Coco Gauff, that rate drops significantly. What matters is not the number of points won, but how she adjusts her serve placement under pressure. In this match, she did not need to adjust anything, because she could end points in two or three shots. That hides a problem: against stronger opponents, she will have to construct points from longer rallies, and that is where her weaknesses are exposed. I recall her match at Wimbledon, where she lost to a defensive player. On grass, where the ball skids low and fast, Sabalenka could not impose her power. She was forced into longer rallies, and her movement was tested. She made many unforced errors and lost. The US Open is a hard court, faster than clay but slower than grass, which favors Sabalenka. But is it enough to compensate for the mental and physical issues she has faced over the past three months? The points-defense pressure is a factor the media often overlooks. Sabalenka is defending 2,000 points from two US Open titles. If she loses before the fourth round, she will lose almost all of those points, and her No. 1 ranking will be seriously threatened. That explains why she seemed tense despite the easy win. In the post-match press conference, she said, "I'm happy with my level, happy with my focus." But I heard caution in her voice. She knows that the match against Iatcenko was just a stepping stone, and the real test begins in the fourth round, where she could face players like Gauff or Swiatek. Contracts are on paper, but the ink is blown away by the media storm. In this case, the contract is the 2,000 points Sabalenka has earned, and the media storm is the expectation of a historic three-peat. But points are not the only thing at stake. Her confidence is too. Three consecutive fourth-round losses have created a mental crack, and this easy win cannot heal it. It only hides it for a while. Defense is the art of staying silent at the right moment. Sabalenka is not a defensive player, but she needs to learn to defend when facing opponents who can exploit her weaknesses. In this match, she did not need to defend, because she was always on the attack. But when facing Gauff, who can push the ball deep and force opponents to run, Sabalenka will have to change her game. She will have to be more patient, waiting for the right moment to attack. And that is when her rhythm can break. I have seen many players collapse under points-defense pressure. They start the tournament with high confidence, but when they face a strong opponent, they become tense and make errors. Sabalenka is no exception. She is an aggressive player, and when aggression fails, she tends to become impatient. In this match, she did not face that situation, but I believe it will come, maybe in the fourth round, maybe in the quarterfinals, or maybe in the semifinals. The media is praising this win as a comeback, but I think they are looking in the wrong direction. They say "recent problems are in the past," but they forget that Sabalenka's opponent was a qualifier. She has not faced anyone in the top 30 at this tournament. The truth is she is avoiding real tests. And that could be a problem: if she is not challenged in the early rounds, she may not be ready when she faces a strong opponent in the fourth round. I remember an old coach's words: "Easy wins don't build confidence; they build complacency." Sabalenka needs to be careful. Looking at her head-to-head with Kamilla Rakhimova, her next opponent. Sabalenka has won all three meetings, including a 6-1, 6-0 victory at Roland-Garros this year. That was a match where Sabalenka completely dominated. But Rakhimova is not a weak player; she has a good serve and hits flat. If Sabalenka is complacent, she could face difficulties. However, I think this match will end in two sets, and Sabalenka will advance to the fourth round with a relaxed mindset. The fourth round is where the truth is revealed. That is where Sabalenka could face a young player like Mirra Andreeva, who has had an impressive season, or a veteran like Gauff, who always knows how to create pressure. If Sabalenka faces Gauff, it will be a match to watch. Gauff has good return skills, agile movement, and smart shot-making. She will force Sabalenka to play longer rallies, and that is where Sabalenka's power can be neutralized. I have followed Sabalenka for years, and I know she is a strong-minded player. She never gives up, even when losing. But strong-mindedness is not always enough. She needs a good tactic, and she needs to maintain her rhythm. In this match, her rhythm was excellent, but that was because she faced no pressure. When pressure comes, her rhythm can break, and that is when she makes errors. An empty summer teaches us to hear the breath of sports. In tennis, summer is the time for grass and hard-court tournaments. Sabalenka had an unsuccessful summer, with three fourth-round losses. But now, she is at the US Open, where she has won two consecutive titles. This is where she feels most comfortable. I believe she will go deep in this tournament, but I am not sure she will win. There are too many variables, and points-defense pressure is one of the biggest. Her next match against Rakhimova will be a light test. But the fourth round, where she could face a young player like Andreeva or a veteran like Gauff, is where the truth is revealed. Will her serve and flat groundstrokes be enough to overcome the points-defense pressure and opponents who know how to read rhythm? I will stand at the back of the court, observing the silence after each point, and I will find the answer there. When Moscow fell silent, I understood that football needs no words. But in tennis, the silence after each point is where I find the truth.